Arizona's First Political Blog
E-mail Anonymous Mike at zonitics4-at-yahoo.com
By Anonymous Mike, pseudonymously.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
What Brown Can Do For You
Some thoughts on Brown's big win in Massachusetts...
1) How long will it take for people start to hollering that Brown is a RINO or some sort of notion that he is a squish like Snowe or Collins? I'm guessing about 12 months, after the Democratic debacle this November and power shifts more from the Ben Nelsons and Mary Landrieus of the world to Republican moderates like Brown and Snowe. Just keep in mind people Brown was probably the most conserative Republican who could have won tonight.
2) Relating to the point above.... keep in mind that this election was held not only during a time of economic hard times with growing disatifaction with the Democrats and Obama but also with one of the worst candidates in memory. Her lackadaiscal campaign style, verbal gaffes such as the Curt Schilling quote, and actions like attending the fund raiser in Washington with health industry representatives.... and it was only a 7 point win. Bluest of the blue states and the Democrats lost.
3) What happens to health care overhaul? I think regardless of what happened tonight, it was dead for the simple fact that the race to pick the elected successor to Ted Kennedy, to whom this legislation was so near and dear and in this bluest of states, was so close. I've been hearing alot of posturing by Democrats and how they would force through the legislation regardless bu that's nonsense because the election showed any Democrat who might be wavering that it's a far bigger electoral danger to vote for health care than against.
Let's say Brown lost and the Democrats tried some sort of conference maneuver meaning votes in both the Senate and House. I think the Democrats not fall below what they need in the Senate and House as those who are running in 2010 and facing tough elections bail on the issue. Now I think given that a number of House Democrats were allowed to vote against health care in order to build street cred in their competitive districts, I think you would need about 25 defections. However if your choice is between angering Nancy Pelosi or having to get a real job after November which would you pick?
The same legislative vote counting logic holds true with a Brown win except you have one less vote in the Senate. Say they go with a Senate vote before Brown takes his seat, if that is even possible; I think the Democrats get the worst of both worlds by being exposed as the crassest of opportunists and would still suffer enough defections in the House and Senate to lose anyway. If there's anything worse than being corrupt, it's being corrupt and incompetent.
Too much analysis has been fixated on how could the Democrats otherwise find that 60th Senate vote if Brown won instead of trying to figure out how many votes they would lose in both houses of Congress. We're about to see if the Congressional Democrats can withstand the urge to panic and that's when the real rout for November will begin