Arizona's First Political Blog
E-mail Anonymous Mike at zonitics4-at-yahoo.com
By Anonymous Mike, pseudonymously.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
The Blue Abyss
There are still some twists and turns to come in this election so this post might be premature, but meh.
We're four weeks out from Election Day and this could be a Democratic landslide.
Yeah Obama extended his lead by several more points in the polls and my guess is that barring some sort of breakthrough on Rezko/Ayers/Wright or even ACORN, that lead is going to start to harden.
However what's even more disconcerting is the meltdown on the Senate races. The key number here is 60 as in the number of seats the Democrats need to have in order to fully control the chamber come January. If Obama wins, the Republicans' only chance to slow down the Democrat agenda will be to filibuster in the Senate. Currently the Democrats have control of 51 seats and as of this moment in the campaign now they either now lead or in a dead-heat in 8 Republican-held seats with no Democratic seats under threat.
Even more worrisome is that 7 of those 8 races have seen a large shift to the Democrats in the past few weeks with the 8th race being in Colorado where Udall has actually seen his lead shrink but still has a comfortable advantage.
So it's possible even at this late date for the Democrats to have 59 Senators in the next Congress; of course the odds are against them in scoring all 8 races, but how close do they need to get to 60? Would 58 do it? 57? Keep in mind that the Republican caucus still holds members like Collins, Snowe, and Voinovich? Would they switch or just be amenable to breaking filibusters? What happens if the polls continue to move in this direction and start to threaten other seats such as Chambliss in Georgia?
So if the electoral nightmare scenario happens (Obama wins and the Democrats get 60 in the Senate) , the Democrats will be in their strongest position in 30 years. So what could we expect in January?
First off I don't expect some of the more reckless policies to be implemented right away. Tax increase in the face of a recession? Tabled until the economy improves, but throw out some bones like bringing back the death tax. Large spending increases? Tabled and blame the deficit. Immediate withdrawal from Iraq with chance of resultant genocide ? Waffled with at worst general agreement on phased withdrawal. Expect blame for these policy shifts to be directed at the mess that dastardly Bush Administration left.
However for every action, there is a reaction and if an Obama Administration backs off on these policy promises then it's going to have ante up on some other favored Democratic proposals that would have less of a dramatic impact on the economy and the world.
Like check card. Good bye secret union ballot.
Reinstatement of the Fairness Doctrine. If you want to listen to Rush, you better plan on subscribing to Sirius.
Investigations of the Bush Administration. Thought the former head of Lehman Brothers got grilled by that House Committee on Monday? Ain't seen nothing yet. In fact I bet you will see, regardless of the November results, a move for impeachment by the House after Election Day.
Best of all?
The FY2009 budget. Did you know that we're 2 weeks into the fiscal year and not one appropriations bill has been passed yet? Well, they did pass one which was a continuing budget resolution that is effective until March 2009. So there is a good chance there wouldn't be a FY2009 budget till the fiscal year is almost half over and that budget will be passed by a Democratic Congress and signed by a Democratic president.
There's 30 years of frustration and vengeance built up in the Democratic Party and unless something in the next few weeks changes the momentum right quick, it's going to come like a gale force wind in January.