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By Anonymous Mike, pseudonymously.

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Friday, August 29, 2008
Thoughts on Palin

The big one is "high risk, high reward." I thought that the election was trending toward McCain. The Obama campaign was shooting itself in the foot with a regularity that showed some real dysfunction, Obama was not gaining any real separation in the polls, and he was soon going to be put in a position where he was the weakest- debates. That being said the Republican brand stinks. McCain must have thought that he needed something to add pizazz and that the base wasn't going to accept Lieberman.

The risks are high. As I write this, Governor Palin has made her debut on the national stage and first impressions are forming that will soon into common wisdom taht she will never shake. Remember Dan Quayle and his first few weeks on the nominee? The man actually had a fairly good rep in the Senate before 1988 but a few verbal missteps and the Hoosier was branded the dunce; he never shook that. Even if the first few weeks go well, she will have to debate Joe Biden on her weakest and his strongest suit- foreing policy.

The rewards, however, are immense.

The logical plan of attack for the Obama campaign are along lines that will leave them exposed to counter-attack. On the experience issue, she compares very well to the top of the Democratic ticket Lack of experience? She's been governor for almost as long as Obama was in the Senate before he decied to run and to top it she has executive experience and he has none. Foreign policy experience? What's Obama going to do? Point to his speech in Berlin?

Corruption in Alaska? Palin can point to reformer creds while Obama is a product of the Chicago machine with ties to Ayers and Rezko. Socially conservative? Palin has a Down Syndrome child while Obama was against the Born Alive bill in the Illinois Legislature. Palin is supposedly against gay marriage, is Obama going to attract new votes based ont hat?

In other words Palin is a form of bait. If the Obama campaign attacks her on those issues they inject issues into the campaign that reflect poorly on him.

Other rewards...

She shores up the base in a way that no one else could. Romney? Evangelical problem. Pawlenty? Tax increase. Huckabee? Solidifies the socially conservative wing but brings his history in Arkanases in play. Lieberman? Need I say anything?

She sucks the oxygen out of the Obama campaign after the Invesco speech. The talk today should have been about that great spectacle last night and it was until shortly before noon EDT when Palin was announced. Obama needs a post-convention bounce to relaunch his campaign after a lackluster last few months and instead he gets this. The Obama campaign has lost the initiaive for a while and has to wait for her to misstep

Plus she supposedly used to go moose hunting in the morning before going to school. How great is that?

Personally I like it because besides the downsides, which are substantial, this is playing to win. The best pick this side of Fred Thompson (no good reason for that sentiment, I just like Fred)