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By Anonymous Mike, pseudonymously.

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Sunday, August 31, 2008
Something Wicked this Way Comes

A few months ago when the FY2009 budget passed, there was a piece in the Arizona Capitol Times that stated that it was unlikely that future revenue growth would be sufficient to meet the budget's enacted revenue level.

Well here it comes. On Friday, JLBC released the fiscal highlight for July 2008, yes that would be the first month of the FY2009 budget, and found revenue growth falling short with the revenue $88.9 million below forecast and with the drop in July sales tax revenue the largest monthly drop during the current down turn.

"As a result of this shortfall, FY 2009 base revenues will now have to grow by 6.1% to
meet the enacted revenue level of $9.98 billion.

Given the FY 2008 experience and current economic conditions, 6.1% growth seems highly unlikely. We will need several months of revenue data, however, before attempting to forecast a revision in FY 2009 revenues. A Finance Advisory Committee meeting is currently planned for October 15th and will assist in that process."

A report on the closing balances for FY2008 due September 15, possible shortfall in the papered-over FY2009 budget to be reported October 15. There's going to be alot of things to mull over while one plants the winter grass.